Wall Street firm Loop Capital has cut its rating on Apple stock, arguing that the company's iPhone shipments for the second half of 2026 will fall well short of plan and are unlikely to be made up later.
According to a report from Investing.com, relayed by MacRumors, Loop Capital moved Apple from "Buy" to "Hold" and lowered its price target from $370 to $330. The firm estimates that Apple is roughly 13 million iPhone shipments behind its second-half plans, and it no longer expects the gap to close.
A change of assumption
Loop had previously assumed that memory and processor shortages had merely delayed some shipments, with Apple recovering the volume in 2027. After its latest supply chain checks, the analysts dropped that view, which is the main reason behind the downgrade.
The new numbers
The firm now models 79 million iPhone shipments in the December quarter, down from its earlier estimate of 85 million. It also lowered its expected average selling price for the quarter to $1,123 from $1,239.
For 2027, Loop forecasts 260 million iPhone shipments, which is higher than its previous projection, but at lower average prices. As a result it cut its 2027 iPhone revenue estimate from $315 billion to $285 billion. The firm also flagged that rising memory costs could put pressure on Apple's profit margins.
Split launch schedule in the background
The note lands against the backdrop of Apple's unusual staggered iPhone cycle. The iPhone 18 Pro arrived in September, the iPhone Duo goes on sale on October 23, and the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e and iPhone Air 2 are not expected until spring 2027, according to earlier reporting.
Counterpoint Research has attributed much of Apple's third-quarter shipment decline to the absence of a standard model this year. Even so, Apple reached a record third-quarter market share of 22 percent in a global smartphone market where shipments fell 20 percent year over year, per Counterpoint.
What to keep in mind
These figures are Loop Capital's own estimates, not Apple guidance, and analyst forecasts frequently differ from one another. Apple has not commented on the downgrade. The company is expected to report its next quarterly results later this fall, which will show how the launch schedule is actually playing out.
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